Barrow Bits

Health Care Hell

During the past few days I have been personally experiencing the hell that is the insurance component of the health care system.  My insurance company (Blue Cross/Blue Shield) has lied to me on four separate occasions, all in an attempt to deny me benefits that I clearly qualify for.  These companies are predators and should be replaced not with a public option, but with a SINGLE PAYER system run by the government. 

Enough to make you sick

Watching and listening to the comments of various politicians concerning the infamous AIG bonuses is enough to make one sick.  The outrage!  How dare them!  Of course these same characters are the ones that knew this was coming.  They let it happen, and then they act surprised and outraged.  The level of incompetence seems staggering.  I'm growing more disappointed by the day in Obama's management style, and the folks he has chosen to advise him.  Can't see how this can build long term positive market sentiment.

Is housing turning around?

A number released this morning may indicate that the housing situation may be turning the corner.  Specifically, construction of new homes soared by 22.2% in February, exceeding estimates by a large margin.  Another number that was encouraging was that producer prices did not decline as much as expected, indicating that deflation may not be a problem after all.  Of course, this does not indicate that everything is now fine and that the stock market will respond with a big rally.  However, it is mildly encouraging.

Washington Nonsense

I for one thought that with a new administration things would get better in Washington. I was wrong.  So far, Mr. Obama has screwed things up pretty well, and Republicans are just eager to take advantage of his miscues for political reasons.  The stimulus bill is a jumble of crap that probably won't work since it has so many needless expenditures that cater to the extreme left of the Democrat party.  Republicans want more tax cuts, which while preferable to many of the spending proposals, are not the answer in and of themselves. What is needed is a blend of proposals but nobody is stepping up to the plate with realistic alternatives.  Small wonder that the stock market is spooked and will likely tank big time over the next few days, particularly given today's employment numbers. Lastly, some advice to the President.  You won the election by a big margin.  Now act like it and tell those crazy southern Republicans to stick it where the sun don't shine.  Maybe some actual leadership will help. 

The Worst January Ever

To be sure, January is my least favorite month.  Living in the northeast the month brings cold, and short dark days.  This year January also has the distinction of being the worst ever for stocks.  This is surely not good news, since the old Wall Street adage is, "so goes January so goes the year".  At this point, it's hard to argue with that point of view.

Testing the Lows

It seems apparent to me that the broad market is in the process of testing the October 2008 lows.  If there is not broad support in that area it could be devastating, at least from a technical point of view.  While some earnings reports clearly offer reason for concern, others are holding up.  The only event that will clearly change market direction is some news that the housing sector is perking up.  The steep decline in housing prices must be at least stabilized.  Until that happens I can't see any meaningful bullish trend developing. Look for the week to end on a sour note.

Beer Bust

You would think that in hard economic times folks would be hitting the bottle more.  However, a new report suggests this is not the case with global beer sales declining.  I must admit that I'm surprised by this development, but then again the world does seem to be spinning out of control.

Buckle your seat belts

Retail sales fell more than expected last month and stock futures point to another horrible day on Wall Street.  Where will this all end?  Increasingly it looks like the recession may return into a depression.  I only hope than Obama gives one hell of a speech next week that may instill some confidence that the world is not coming to an end.  So for today, in the words of Bette Davis, " buckle your seat belts it's going to be a bumpy ride"

Thanks MSFT

If not for the MSFT bid for Yahoo the market, as I suspected, would have reacted very negatively to the jobs report.  Job creation in January was actually in negative territory, suggesting a very weak economy.  Who knows, maybe we are headed for a recession?  However, the prospect of more M&A activity may prove a good counter force to an economic slowdown.   Not as bearish as earlier today.

Good Bye, Good Riddance

It was a horror.  It caused sleepless nights.  It was painful. It was often irrational.  No, I'm not talking about the prospect of John McCain having access to the nuclear code, but the month of January 2008 for stock investors.  From the first trading day of the new year it has been an almost steady decline in equity prices.  The S&P 500 had its worst January since 1990, and the Nasdaq had its weakest start to a year EVER.  So yesterday, some institutions did some window shopping for some bargains, found them among the home builders and some financials, and the market ended January on an up note.  I'm not impressed.  It will take more than some bottom fishing to convince me their are serious buyers entering the market.  By, the way there is lots of cash on the side-lines, but I don't think it will be put to work just yet. I'm still expecting more near term downside.  Today's employment report can produce that very easily.