Barrow Bits

The World Gone Mad

It really seems to me that the world has gone mad, and the main culprit in this development is the media.  Recently, President Obama mentioned the 24-hour news cycle that is so appealing and necessary for the cable news blowhards. The sick coverage of the Michael Jackson death is sufficient evidence that the media ( importantly including the Internet) controls the message.  Then we have the case of South Carolina governor Mark Stanford who pulls a disappearing act, then lies about where he was and ends of admitting he fell for an Argentine bombshell.  In Iran religious fanatics have seeseemingly prevailed and these nuts likely will have nuclear weapons real soon.  I wonder what coverage the media - and particularly the creeps at Fox News - have planned for coverage of the nuclear blast that is almost certainly going to happen?  As for such a mundane subject as the stock market I can't help but be impressed by the whistling past the grave yard resiliency of the major averages.  Indeed, the world seems to have gone mad!

Republican Implosion

The Republican party is on the verge of extinction.  How more bizarre can you get than the case of South Carolina Gov.Mark Stanford?  This is the guy that was being touted as presidential timber.  Just astounding.  As much as I dislike the current GOP I really am very sorry that the party is in the process of self-destructing.  Any vibrant democracy needs an opposition voice, but that cannot be credible with the likes of Sarah Palin and Mark Stanford in the party.  Nor can it be offered by the likes of Newt Gingrich, a vintage throughback to the 90's.  A new party must be formed that will be more libertarian in philosophy and that has the agenda to attract young people and Hispanics. I became active in the Republican party in my early teens and that participation reached a peak with the election of Ronald Reagan.  However, it's not the same party today and I cannot be a member any longer. Very sad.

Told you so

For weeks I have been warning that the stock market was overvalued and not reflective of the real economy.  Yesterday I was proved correct as the market tanked realizing that things are no so good.  Stocks and industrial commodities tanked around the world on Monday as growth prospects waned.  I don't expect much, if any, of a rebound today. 

The Bears are out in force

Watching the financial news today it's apparent that the bears are out in force.  Since many of the folks talking the market down today have been wrong for so long, it strikes me that the recent decline in stock prices may present a good trading opportunity on the long side.  The conventional wisdom is almost always wrong.

BioSpecifics Technologies

Tomorrow BioSpecifics Tech. (Nasdaq-BTSC) will hold its annual meeting.  I am a shareholder but will not be able to attend.  However, I still believe that this stock has the potential for a real run from current price levels.  BTSC is the original developer of injectable collangenase.  BTSC has a great relationship with Auxilium  (Nasdaq-AUXL) which provides for substantial royalty payements. In recent days a research report was issued placing a 12-month price target of $40 on the BTSC shares.  In my view, BioSpecifics is very undervalued and the just mentioned price target seems reasonable.

It's a dangerous world

While the direction of the stock market is most often determined by economic issues there is little doubt that international political events can also be a big determinant of stock valuations.  Therefore, I don't find recent international events to be very comforting for investors.  For instance, North Korea is ruled by a real nut job who is now threatening nuclear war.  In Iran, the recent election was obviously rigged putting to rest any idea that democracy is on the way in that country.  Indeed, the ruling elite in Iran are deranged religious fanatics who have already threatened to wipe Israel off the map.  While these are the two most notable recent hot spots,  perhaps an even greater threat comes from terrorist groups that may get a nuke.  I do think that it's just a matter of time before the nuclear genie pops out of the bottle.  Can you imagine the reaction of the market to nuclear explosions?  So while we worry about every economic stat a much larger problem is brewing.

No recession in DC

Just returned from a trip to the DC area and I was struck by how the stores and malls were packed and that it was a very different feeling from here in New York where every other store seems to be for rent.  Not surprisingly I found an article that explains what's going on in Washington.  The only boom it seems is in the government.  Lord help us all!!

Economic reality

There is little in this current stock market environment that reflects economic reality.  While some segments of the economy do show some improvement these advances are more than offset by the continued problems in real estate along with the prospect of a U.S. debt load that is nothing short of staggering.  Be warned here.  This stock market level is not sustainable for much longer.  Perhaps there will be some further price gains this summer, but by the time the leaves start to fall I fear that comparisons with last autumn may be the order of the day.

Close but no cigar

The stock market continued its bogus rally today and almost turned the Dow positive for the year.  I think we are stretched real thin folks.  Beware this market. 

Obama's Speech

If you haven't heard or read President Obama's speech in Cairo yesterday, I urge you to do so.  It was an historic speech, given by a guy that will go down in history of one of the great presidents in American history.  Yesterday, while Obama was speaking it dawned on me that this is why I voted for the guy.  Never voted for a Democrat before but I supported Obama for the very reason that he would change the way the world looked at us.   For better or worse  we live in a global community and we can no longer come off as a bullying and interfering power.  Not been in a particularly good mood lately but that speech yesterday really helped lift my spirits.  We finally have a president and a leader.