Barrow Bits

Fighting the tape

One of the truisms of Wall Street is not fighting the tape, and right now the tape is looking bullish.  Although I continue to have serious doubts about the longevity of this rally it's hard not to be impressed with recent market activity.  The S&P 500 is up about 30% from its March low and that is a very strong showing in such a short period of time.  Futures are looking up again this morning and stocks look headed for another winning session.  In sum, don't fight the tape, but still proceed with caution.

Pig in a Poke

Been traveling for a few days so I have not had the opportunityto sit down and actually post a few words.  However, I have not been immune from being subjected to the hysteria concerning swine flu which is giving the cable networks new material for doom and gloom coverage.  On Monday it seemed that the possibility of a global pandemic was really going to send the markets tumbling, but alas things held together pretty well, as they did yesterday.  This morning futures are pointing to a higher opening, as investors are coming to their senses about this pig in a poke.  Let's be clear.  There never was too much risk of the swine flu wiping out humanity, but by the same token it is a problem to be reckoned with, and that is exactly what seems to be happening, except in Mexico which is certainly behaving like the third world country it really is, with a totally inadequate response to a health crisis.  No wonder most Mexicans want to come here!  I expect the market will continue to monitor the swine flu situation but in the end corporate earnings, which will continue to flood the market this week will determine the short term trend in equity prices.

An Encouraging Walk

Yesterday I took one of my extensive walking tours of the West Village.  In the course of running many errands I could not help but notice that for the first time in months there were actually stores that were OPENING.  Many of the restaurants that had folded are being replaced with new eateries.  Obviously, some people are optimistic about the ability to make money.  Now, this is just a small sample, but nonetheless was very encouraging for New York and the general economy.  Apple's earnings prove people still have money and are willing to spend it for the right products.  Got a feeling that things may be turning and if this continues I may feel better about the stock market.

Sell Your Mututal Funds

I have concluded that the only way many investors have of recouping some of the huge losses suffered in the past couple of years is to dump their mutual funds and begin buying individual stocks.  Of course, this is premised on the availability of good ideas which can be generated by one's own research or with the help of a good broker.  This past market downturn puts to rest once and for all the theory of buy and hold mutual funds because in the long-run you will benefit. The complacency fueled by such a view caused countless number of IRA and 401'k plans to fall to a point that is deplorable.  It turns out the "professionals" were not as smart as they thought they were.  To continue to have money with these fools is not the way to recoup your losses.  If you search around there are some good stocks to be purchased that offer potential returns much higher than most mutual funds.  I'll be commenting on some in future posts.

An Ugly Day

We were long due for an ugly day and we got one.  Let's see what happens tomorrow but I'm not too optimistic. 

All those empty seats

In watching the Yankees play on TV this weekend I was struck by the number of empty seats in the so-called "Legions" area.  These are the seats that are being marketed by the Yankees for $2,600 per seat, per game.  To me (who has season tickets at a much lower but still exhoribant rate) the thought of anyone paying $2,600 to see a baseball game is obscene.  But apparently the genius minds of the Yankees believed folks would.  The result is now a sea of empty seats on TV which is very troubling to look at.  It's testimonyy to the era of greed that seems to now be at an end.  I hope the Yankees take some action to remedy a pricing situation that is now totally unacceptable and was always obscene.  It's a sad day for baseball when things like this happen, even sadder when it happens to a team you love.

As for the market, I'm a believer in not fighting the tape and so it could be another positive week for stocks.  Earnings have been coming in better than the lowered expections of the analysts.  Indeed, on the surface things look better, but if you look just below the surface conditions are still pretty rotten, so I'm still skeptical of this being the dawn of a new bull market.

DryShips, Inc.

In previous posts I have mentioned Dryships, Inc. (Nasdaq-DRYS) as an interesting play.  Shipping stocks in general have been strong in recent market sessions.  They are really a great way to play the global economic recovery that may be developing. The Baltic Dry Index has been rising in recent days as well.  DRYS is particularly strong today after announcing they they raised $500 in equity capital, thereby helping their balance sheet.  Could be a short squeeze developing as well as many folks have been negative on DRYS.  Disclaimer:  I own the stock.

Happy Tax Day

Happy tax day everyone.  I'm sure we are all happy to help the government bail out the likes of Wall Street predators who have done their best to destroy the country. Living in New York City I am well aware of taxes being oppressive under the leadership of Michael "the douce" Bloomberg.  I guess the best example of Bloomberg's rein of terror was on Easter Sunday when the police scooters were out in force in the West Village looking to ticket cars that were parked.  This man has no shame hence the name I choose to call him.  I only hope that in November the voters kick this bum out.

Evergreen Energy

Some readers have questioned my criticism of Evergreen Energy since I own the stock.  Well, who  better to criticize than someone who has been burned by a bad investment? By the same reasoning proxy fights are usually launched by shareholders who are disgruntled with the way management has performed.  When one buys an equity position in a public company it entitles one to many rights, including the right to say that the company has been poorly managed.  Unfortunately, I am so underwater on this stock it makes little sense to sell my position at this point. I guess I'm still hoping for a miracle. However, I can still voice my opinion on a company that has accomplished very little in building shareholder value.

A Sucker's Rally

The recent rally is not for real.  Sure it's making some people feel somewhat better, but I just can't believe this can last much longer.  While I don't think the economy is as terrible as the Fox Business Channel would have us believe, things are not really that good either. Yes, there are some encouraging signs, but too few to get me excited.  I think the key to a sustained recovery and for a real stock market rally will be whether or not the Spring housing market picks up.  Housing is the key and this sector must get a jump start before we can sing happy days are here again.