2009 Predictions

Everybody seems to be offering predictions for the coming year, so why not me? So here it goes.............

• The stock market will stage an early year rebound largely surrounding the theory that at last we will have a national leader who has a brain.
• The economy will rebound faster than expected because Americans cannot resist the temptation to spend.
• Housing prices will rebound slowly but will show signs of life by the end of the year.  People still need a place to live and housing will take on a more rational reason for owning, and folks will stop using the "house" as a "bank".  This will have significant long-term implications for the economy.
• Oil prices will spike to more than $100 per barrel sometime during 2009 as mid-East tensions boil over.
• GM will go bankrupt in 2009.  There is no saving this pension liability pig.
• Alternative energy stocks will be hot in 2009. 
• Any early year rally should be viewed as an excellent selling opportunity, because the structural problems in the economy are so acute long-term commitments to equities could prove quite risky.

Finally, while 2008 was horrendous for me by any standard, I hesitate to say things couldn't be much worse, because that could happen.  Let's just say I hope it's a better year!!